29 May At Odds With Your Mindset
When you place a bet, what percentage do you have of winning? It’s a straightforward question but most punters don’t have a clue. It’s the favourite right? So it must win or go close…? Betting like this will be so detrimental to your mindset that over time you will get disillusioned and quit or even worse, keep losing!
The way to resolve this is to understand what the ‘odds’ are actually showing or telling you. If you use Betfair, the Betfair Starting Price (BSP) is one of the best guides you will get to the “realistic” chance you have of winning your bet. We will take a look at a few examples and explain it in a bit more detail.
If you back a selection at 2.66 BSP you have a 37.59% chance of winning according to the odds. The selection may well be the favourite, but that doesn’t increase its chance of winning. How often have you cursed the jockey, trainer, draw or race tactics thinking that you should have won? Realistically speaking the percentages were already against you. You had a 37.59% chance of winning and the rest had a 62.41% chance. So who is the favourite – you or the field?
It’s quite easy to get caught up in figures, but understanding what you are trying to achieve and how you are going about it is crucial to long term success. You can be lucky but your luck will run out after a few races. If you are taking your betting seriously and when you place a bet you know the percentage or chance, then your mindset will alter and alter for the good.
If we lay a selection at 3.55 we have a 71.84% chance of getting that selection beat – even with luck the odds are now in your favour. If you have a method or strategy where the average winning price is lower than 3.55 you should be looking at long term gains. This is just one of the advantages of Betfair – you can choose to lay a selection and say it won’t or shouldn’t win. But remember, at 3.55 it still has a 28.16% chance of doing so.
You can quickly see that knowing the price that suits your mindset when backing and laying will quickly help you become stronger and more confident. This is why I always work to “above” and “below” prices for backing and laying in all my methods. When I advise my VIP or Inner Circle clients, they always know where the value point is. Each selection is different and is based on its odds. Not every selection will be the same but when you know where you have an edge and can identify “value” you will turn your betting from negative to positive.
Taking control of your betting is one of the hardest jobs you will ever do.
The important point to take on board is just because it’s the favourite or short odds it doesn’t mean it’s going to win. It only has a percentage chance of winning and you need to factor in a poor jockey, bad race tactics, a poor trainer, weather conditions, barrier draw and possibly another horse blocking your run. There are so many things that stand between you and the winning post. It’s easy to say that the market has everything factored in and to an extent it has. Probability plays a big part and when you can understand all the surrounding circumstances like bottom line profit, return on investment, strike rate and odds you will soon become a more knowledgeable punter and not one that relies on “lady luck”.
So the next time you are cursing the jockey, be realistic about the probability you actually had of winning. Know that when you back something at 2.66 that over time you should lose 62 times in every 100. When you build this into your betting you will become profitable and will know from your method or strategy when 2.66 gives you an edge and value or when it’s time to leave it alone.
The more you put into your betting the more you will get out of it.
If you can grasp the disciplines required you will begin to enjoy and understand it a lot more. Mastering the mindset is a lot harder than it sounds and it won’t happen overnight, but when you feel you have accepted the probability and odds, patience and discipline will immediately follow. This information is helpful if you want to bet for profit and not for a bit of fun. It takes all kinds to make up the betting world but the more knowledgeable you become the more fun you will have as profitable betting days are most welcome to any punter.