Melbourne Cup Data


The great day is upon us once again and we all have our strategies and methods to attack the bookies. I personally like to see where the money comes from and betting a few selections in each race gives me confidence in finding the winner.

It’s always a difficult day to win on with so much going on and the party in full swing, but here are a few guidelines to help you in your Backing the Win, Dutch Betting, Exacta’s, Trifecta’s and First Fours.

I personally aim at the Dutch Bets as I feel these bets give me an advantage and I can cover the “money makers” year in, year out. The trick to the Dutch Bet is backing in the order of the market and Betfair Starting Price (BSP). You want to BACK the selections in order of BSP so you need to be on the ball. This is easy for people who want to win but it does take some concentration.

Over a number of years as Betfair gets stronger and stronger, the market is a great guide and if you are looking for a solid bet over this year’s Melbourne Cup, then pay attention to the following.


Races 1-10

If you back the following selections IN ORDER OF BETFAIR STARTING PRICE

Favourite 3rd 4th 7th 9th 14th 23rd


Results over the past few years show


+241.82 (After Betfair deductions)

Probability of a selection winning the race


Odds for a level Dutch Bet



That means from day one of your first Tuesday you have hit +241.82 giving you a return on investment of 18.3%. It also means you hit a winner at a strike rate of 75.73%.

The level Dutch Bet price is a great guide for value and if you enter all of these selections into a Dutching calculator and can easily beat these odds, the bet is worth placing.

Getting stuck in race by race


Now lots of people do not like the “long term” approach so let’s just get stuck right into this Tuesday, November 5th.

Here are my thoughts on all TEN races and you can see where we have the “money makers” running for us in each individual race and remember, we are using Betfair Starting Price so be on the ball at race time!


Race 1 2nd Favourite 3rd 4th 8th    
Race 2 Favourite 2nd 9th      
Race 3 3rd 6th        
Race 4 7th 8th 11th      
Race 5 3rd 4th 5th 7th 9th  
Race 6 Favourite 3rd 4th 7th    
Race 7 THE CUP Favourite 3rd 4th 6th 9th 23rd
Race 8 Favourite 4th 5th 6th    
Race 9 3rd 5th 7th 9th 11th  
Race 10 4th 5th 6th 7th 9th  


All of the above are in profit for their individual races and can be used sensibly throughout the day for you to target the expected winners in whichever bet type you prefer.

I hope you enjoy the day and the weather stays fair so we can all enjoy the race that stops the nation.

This is free information so take it or leave it but here’s to a fantastic Melbourne Cup Day in 2019 either way! RT

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