20 Jun Simple EPL Methods
Welcome back EPL!
Great to see another sport making a return this week and already some controversy in the Sheffield Utd/Villa match. If the watch says no goal then no goal?! Even although the third eye clearly saw it?! If you’re a fan on the receiving end it’s a hard one to swallow considering the 0-0 outcome. So really we still get the same talking points even with the technology but it takes 126 minutes to play a game now!
What did the betting tell us in the first two games? Looking at the data before the game the match odds clearly lit up three things: Man City Home Win, Aston Villa Draw and Sheffield United Away Win.
A simple bet could have been the following:
Man City 1.36, Aston Villa Draw 3.45: 1 unit staked, 4.49 units returned, profit 3.69 units
Man City 1.36, Sheffield United 2.36: 1 unit staked, 3.20 units possible return, profit/loss -1.00 units
Profit 2.69 – Nice start!
How did we find this? By looking at the odds and seeing if you are a “value hunter” or a “what should happen” punter. The bookies threw out the value Man City Draw and Arsenal 5.90 and 9.80 respectively. The same in the Villa game with Villa overpriced for a home team at 3.40.
So you see you have a decision to make. Take the “what should happen” options or take the overpriced value. I decided to only advise the Draw and Sheffield United option for a nice Dutch bet.
If you set up a simple data sheet you can instantly spot little things like this at a glance. When you find your preferred way of looking at things and understanding the odds, you will become profitable. You will find what suits you and invest sensibly and profit regularly.
Correct Score Markets
This was another area that you can set up a simple data sheet and pinpoint what should happen, where the value lies and what people are overpricing.
The top six correct score options in the Villa game were 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0, 1-1 and 1-2. With the odds all being above 6 you just needed one to hit. We all know the outcome now at 0-0 so with odds reading 11.00 it was a very nice return.
The value lay with 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, AOHW and AOAW. You can see the odds were very tempting to try and draw you in. By having a plan and setting out a method and staking plan you can build simple readymade strategies.
If we move onto the City game the same thing happened. The “should happen” scores were 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1and AOHW.
With the result being 3-1 and the odds on offer at 11.50 it was another very nice collect, albeit in the 90th minute! 2-0 Was also covered at 10.00 so either way it was a winning result. The value hunters were offered 9 options in this game: 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3 and AOAW.
It’s a very interesting way to look at your football betting and lets you understand how the odds actually work. You can also compare correct score with the goals markets and you can usually be guided toward a win.
Football is a great sport to bet on and finding some simple methods and strategies well help your betting not only become profitable but to understand how all the odds complement each other across various markets. The return has brought 4/4 so far so let the profits keep flowing!
It’s great to have the controversial talking points back and the numerous markets open for us all to play so here’s to the return of the EPL!