28 Jan The Punter/Quant Mashup!
When I work with such a wide range of people in the betting world it was only a matter of time before I bumped into a “quant” type bettor. He told me what he wanted to do and I pointed him in the right direction. One year later he returned with an incredible workbook full to the brim of astonishing figures. I asked him if he had been betting and he said “No, but I’m ready now!”
Working through all his material it struck me that so many people have so many ideas but fail to see them through. They do all the hard work and then just give it away. I responded by giving him my own data and asked him to find two specific bet types that I knew could be profitable. Then I would put his “quant” theories to the test at two race meetings on the all-weather tracks.
You can never judge anything on such a short window but I wanted to see if the figures stacked up and if a normal “punter” could follow. Race by race here are the results from Lingfield and Kempton Park on a cold January UK day!
Betfair Starting Price
The bet types I settled for were straight lay betting using BSP. My data will always show me a base figure to aim for and it lets me see if there is any value or if a slight edge can be gained.
The start point was the 13.15 at Lingfield Park and here is how it turned out.
- Bet: Lay United Front at 6.43 or Less
- Result: 2nd United Front 4.02 BSP
Nice start and United Front dropped to 1.70 in the run but the result ends up in my favour.
P & L: +1 Point
I will keep the ongoing to full stakes but obviously your commission would have to come from your winnings.
We had a coffee and watched the next few races until the next race qualified which was the 15.35 at Lingfield Park.
- Bet: Lay Shamshon at 6.68 or Less
- Result: Un-Placed Shamshon 4.10 BSP
Second winner of the day and to be brutal, Shamshon was never in the race even although it dropped to 2.50 in running.
P & L: +2 Points
The final race we are interested in at Lingfield Park is the 16.05 and we are being greedy here with two selections.
- Bets: Lay Tributo at 3.44 or Less and Lay Propagation at 6.88 or Less
- Result: Un-Placed Tributo 3.05 BSP and Un-Placed Propagation 5.57 BSP
Neither selection was going to trouble the judge – a great move taking on the front of the market and both qualified below the prices required.
P & L: +4 Points
That concludes the four bets picked out for Lingfield Park and we move onto the twilight meeting at Kempton.
We get started straight away and hot on the heels of the last at Lingfiled in the 16.10 at Kempton Park.
- Bet: Lay Cheeky AZ at 6.38 or Less
- Result: 3rd Cheeky AZ 33 BSP
It joined in but was never getting to the winning line in first place and a nice start to the meeting. I am starting to think that the quants are enjoying themselves as a lot of people at this point would be banking their profits for the day!
P & L: +5 Points
The 16.45 is the next race up and we are looking to lay another. This time the price is tighter and hopefully the figures match up.
- Bet: Lay Prey For Glory at 3.29 or Less
- Result: Un-Placed Prey For Glory 3.23 BSP
We just sneaked in at our price but another nice lay bet winner and again it never looked like troubling the judge.
P & L: +6 Points
We are taking on another short one in the 17.15 at Kempton Park.
- Bet: Lay Vivency at 3.29 or Less
- Result: 1st Vivency 2.83 BSP
Great race and it scrapes home by a short head as Hollie Doyle fails to get the well ridden Perfect Rose up. Our first loser of the day to record and let’s hope the first 6 points were accurate and well earned.
P & L: +4.17 Points
Seven selections still to go and let’s see if we can get straight back on a winner.
Next up is the 17.45 at Kempton Park.
- Bet: Lay Torbellino at 3.01 or Less
- Result: 2nd Torbellino 2.49 BSP
Nice and low! Just the price you like to lay bet at. It went very close and traded at 1.13 in the run but it’s the result that matters in this bet type and we are collecting once again.
P & L: +5.17 Points
We can’t keep taking on two in a race and expect to keep collecting…or can we? This would be an option to set yourself a selection process and to play the one you feel fits your bet criteria and mindset the best.
- Bet: Lay Win Win Power at 3.27 or Less and Lay Red Jasper at 5.14 or Less
- Result: 1st Win Win Power 2.55 BSP and 3rd Red Jasper 5.76 BSP
We match on the winner and he only just made it! And we fail to match on price on red Jasper which was a pity.
P & L: +3.62 Points
In the 18.50 race we looked at lay betting Oud Metha Bridge but the selection was David Probert’s mount and he failed to put the selection into the race.
- Bet: Lay Moxy Mares at 5.46 or Less
- Result: Un-placed Moxy Mares 5.25
P & L: +4.62 Points
We are onto the second last race of the night and once again we have two selections.
- Bet: Lay Lady Quickstep at 4.36 or Less and Lay Sepahi at 7.27 or Less
- Result: Un-placed lady Quickstep 4.11 BSP and Unplaced Sepahi 4.91 BSP
P & L: +6.62 points
The last race and we think the odds we are giving will be matched!
- Bet: Lay Cinzento at 13.79 or less
- Result: 3rd Cinzento 3.25 BSP
The selection managed to get to 1.80 in running but we were very confident due to the price we thought it should be!
Final P & L: +7.62 Points
That was an easy to follow day, sitting playing the races and leaving with a healthy return. The commission and expenses need to come off but a very enjoyable day and an easy way to find selections.
Having data will always make you a confident bettor, especially when you have a figure to aim for or a sense of value. The thing you need is an edge using Betfair and when you can identify value the edge is very nearly always there and on your side.
The bet type we used is very basic and to level stakes. The quant’s take from the information I gave him was that he would stop when he hit +1 point profit a day and he would have the staking plan to suit. Sounds easy and you find in betting lots of profitable methods are simple – it’s the shiny distractions that have you looking over there!
It was an enjoyable day and now he wants the data every day to produce the same results. Hard work is always rewarded and the quant and data people often need the bet type and staking explained. When they have this, I find they are very methodical in their execution of bets.
I have so many interesting clients all over the world that every time something like this comes up I get so many enquiries. I love helping bettors become profitable and get great satisfaction from it. If you think you have something you want to work on or would like more information on the above drop me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org
It’s been a great day and I have thoroughly enjoyed the project at hand.